Amazon on track to overtake Walmart as the largest US retailer by 2025

  • Amazon GMV sales will reach $631.6bn by 2025. This represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% between 2020 and 2025
  • Walmart total sales will grow at 3.9% CAGR, reaching $523.3bn by 2025
  • Ecommerce will account for 29% of total chain retail sales by 2025, making it the fastest growing channel in the US market over the next four years


Press Release


Boston, 27 April 2021: Amazon is set to overtake Walmart as the largest retailer in the US within the next four years. Amazon GMV sales will reach USD $631.6bn by 2025, according to a new report from Edge by Ascential’s market research arm, Retail Insight.

This comes as ecommerce in the US continues its meteoric rise, with US online sales expected to increase to more than USD $1 trillion ($1.204 tn) by 2025, a 41% growth on 2020 ($710.7 bn), which in itself was a bumper year for ecommerce as social distancing forced people online to fill the time and buy household essentials.

Ecommerce sales grew about 30% in 2020 from $546.3bn in 2019. In 2018, ecommerce sales were $471.3bn.  

The United States Retail Landscape and Market Planning Report 2021, shows that Walmart sales will grow at 2020-2025 CAGR of 3.9% to reach USD $523.3bn by 2025, boosted by its ecommerce offering. Data from Edge by Ascential reveals that Walmart’s ecommerce sales are set to grow at a 5-year CAGR of 14.9% from $43.6bn in 2020 to $87.5bn in 2025, accounting for 16.7% of total retailer sales in 2025.

Meanwhile, Amazon will continue to grow its third-party marketplace business model, which will account for 66% of gross merchandise value (GMV)* sales in 2025, up from 60% in 2020.    

This offers brands an opportunity to embrace the ecommerce boom by piggybacking on the marketplace’s enormous success, formidable investment in customer acquisition and growing reputation for live selling.

Data from Edge by Ascential shows that Kroger will remain the third largest retailer in the US, with sales growing at a CAGR of 3.6% to reach $166.6bn in sales by 2025. However, Costco, which is the fourth largest, is expected to invest heavily in its digital capabilities, with its online sales set to increase by 47% over the same period, reaching $15.3bn in 2025.   

Edge by Ascential analysts forecast that ecommerce penetration in the US will grow from 22.1% in 2020 to account for 29% of total chain retail sales by 2025. This will be driven by a new generation of customers with greater expectations of immediacy and personalization. Over the next few years, Generation Z will become a bigger share of wallet for brands and retailers, who will need to focus investment in online and engage with the digital ecosystem in order to win market share.  

Deren Baker, CEO at Edge by Ascential, said: “The United States is one of the biggest ecommerce markets in the world, and the growth accelerated by the pandemic opens doors for brands who must leverage digital channels and touchpoints to reach new consumers. Retailers and brands across sectors must innovate and prioritize omnichannel strategies in order to cater to fast-changing consumer demands. The lines between physical and digital retail is blurring and 5G-enabled smartphones will only accelerate this trend.”

Baker continued: “As Amazon grows to become the largest retailer in the US, brands must understand they cannot win through mass personalization when faced with the huge spending power of large marketplaces like this. They should therefore ensure they have the correct strategies in place to use marketplaces, like Amazon, to reach the right consumers and meet their needs.”

Top Ten Retailers by Net Sales Bar Graph

Ecommerce is the only channel that is expected to grow market share in the US over the next four years, grabbing market share from supermarket and Big Box retailers. Food service and discount retailers are expected to maintain market share. 

US Channel Evolution- Selected Channels by Net Sales

Moreover, Edge by Ascential analysts predict that there will be a more permanent shift to online grocery even after the relaxing of social restrictions and a return to some sort of normality. During the peak pandemic period of 2020, online grocery sales accelerated, up by about 35% in 2020 to reach $30.8bn. The pace of growth for online grocery will level off after the 2020 boom, but edible grocery ecommerce is still expected to grow at 13.3% CAGR between now and 2025.

Edge by Ascential analysts urge retailers and brands not to ignore the growing significance of delivery intermediaries, such as Shipt, Instacart and Doordash in the US, as well as global hot food delivery platforms like Deliveroo and Uber Eats, which turned to the grocery category to support supermarkets with fulfilment in the early days of the pandemic crisis.

“The pandemic has permanently shifted consumer habits from in-store to ecommerce. This has implications for a brand’s go-to-market approach but also its store strategy as stores become part of an ecosystem of retailing touchpoints rather than the main event with a digital add-on. Brands must embrace digital platforms, such as marketplaces and delivery intermediaries and customize product offerings and selling strategies accordingly,” Baker added.

Notes to Editors

*GMV or gross merchandise value is a standard used to measure the size of a third-party (3P) marketplace. It is calculated by multiplying the number of products sold by the price at which each product was sold over a given time period.
Amazon sales consider only retail. These include online and offline (1P, 3P GMV, and store-based banners such as Whole Foods).
Walmart sales include all of their online and offline retail operations including Sam's Club, but exclude fuel.

About the report

All figures come from Edge by Ascential’s United States Retail Landscape and Market Planning Report, February 2021 available on subscription to the Edge by Ascential Retail Insight platform. The report was created with data from Edge by Ascential proprietary analytics tool Retail Market Monitor, which can analyse the entire retail ecosystem by sector, geography and channel and identifies growth opportunities for retailers and brands.

Our forecasts change week-by-week because of the fast-changing developments in the market, particularly at the moment as a result of the pandemic and evolving government messaging around lockdowns, but also because of the fast-paced changes and developments in digital innovation and ecommerce.    

For the most up-to-date forecasts in the retail industry and to access the full US report please email

About Edge by Ascential

Edge by Ascential helps global and local brands to win in digital commerce in a new and complex era of omnichannel retail. Our unique combination of industry-leading data, analytics, market research and expert consulting solutions inform the ecommerce-driven go-to-market strategy, optimization and performance measurement of the world’s largest brands. We support our clients to always make the right investment decisions,  drive margin growth and achieve the necessary edge to grow. More than 400 global brands depend upon our weekly, daily and real-time data-driven insights.
A subsidiary of Ascential plc, the global specialist information company, Edge by Ascential operates in North America, Europe and Asia. For more information, visit

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