Instacart to reach $27.33bn in GMV sales by 2025 overtaking Target.com

  • Instacart, the largest grocery-focused on-demand delivery service in the US, and Uber will surpass Target’s digital business by gross merchandise value (GMV) sales by 2025
  • DoorDash, the largest food delivery service in the US, will overtake eBay.com (exc consumer-to-consumer sales) in the US in terms of GMV sales by 2025 
  • By 2025, US GMV sales at on-demand food delivery firms will grow to almost $140 billion - more than double 2020 levels 
  • US sales at on-demand food delivery firms, including DoorDash, Uber and grocery-focused intermediary Instacart, are accelerating at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of almost 17% (16.8%) a year to reach $138.77 billion by 2025. That is almost 1.7 times faster than the total ecommerce market in the US, which is predicted to grow at 10.1% CAGR during the same time frame 
  • Globally, last-mile delivery platforms that partner with restaurants, supermarkets and non-food retailers will grow at almost 20% (19.3%) CAGR to reach $547 billion by 2025, up from $227 billion in 2020. Total global ecommerce is predicted to grow at CAGR 12.1% to 2025

 

*Data and forecasts from Edge by Ascential’s syndicated retail research arm Edge Retail Insight.
 

Leading US Ecommerce & Delivery Intermediary Banners by Sales (USD mn)

 

Press Release

 

Boston, 03 June 2021: By 2025, US gross merchandise value (GMV) sales growth at Instacart, which has recently been expanding its partnerships outside grocery, will reach $27.33 billion, while Uber GMV sales - through its  primary delivery intermediary banner Uber Eats - will reach $27.58 billion, according to forecasts from Edge by Ascential’s market research arm, Retail Insight.

Target.com, meanwhile, will grow GMV sales by $24.44 billion, up from $14.87 billion in 2020. 
  
The forecasts are made in an Edge Retail Insight report, Sizing the Delivery Intermediary Opportunity, which reviews the state of the fast-moving on-demand delivery intermediary market and assesses the emerging retail channel’s future growth prospects for consumer packaged goods (CPG) clients looking to grow in ecommerce.   

The report also predicts that DoorDash, the leading app-based restaurant delivery service in the US, will overtake ecommerce giant eBay.com in the US by 2025. DoorDash, which expanded into grocery last summer to accommodate booming demand during the pandemic and is actively partnering with retailers in other categories, will add $48.57 billion worth of GMV sales in 2025, doubling 2020 sales. 

Edge by Ascential analysts predict DoorDash will become the third largest ecommerce banner in the US, behind Amazon and Walmart.com by 2025.

Ebay B2C growth is predicted to be muted. Edge Retail Insight analysts forecast GMV sales (excluding consumer-to-consumer sales) at Ebay.com to reach $34.60 billion by 2025, up from $30.55 billion in 2020.  

With forecasts and analysis powered by analytics from Edge Retail Insight’s proprietary data tool, the report reveals:
 

  • Global delivery intermediary share of global ecommerce will jump to more than 10% - up from 7.9% in 2020 and 8.5% in 2021
  • Every market will accelerate over the next few years but Asia Pacific will lead the pack - growing 170% between 2020 and 2025 to add GMV sales of $329 billion. Sales will double in all other major markets and almost triple across the Middle East and Africa - reaching $11.38 billion in 2025, up from $4.72 billion in 2020.     
  • The on-demand grocery market will continue to accelerate - even after lockdowns end and economies open up again - jumping almost 150% to grow GMV sales by $76.27 billion to 2025. DoorDash will account for about a third of US delivery platform sales by 2025, with Uber and Instacart racing up behind, with 20% each, say the Edge Retail Insight analysts.

 

Top 8 USA Delivery Intermediaries by Sales (USD mn)

 

The report focuses on the major app-based on-demand food delivery groups that started out delivering meals for restaurants, but are now rapidly expanding into new categories, such as grocery and health and beauty. 

It does not take into account the new generation of rival apps that have burst onto the grocery delivery stage in recent months, threatening to complicate supply chains even more with their promises of groceries to your door in 10 minutes.    
   
Deren Baker, CEO, Edge by Ascential, said: “Ecommerce is growing and evolving rapidly. Consumer behaviors and shopping habits have been changed forever by COVID-19 and we are living now in the future of retail. The delivery intermediary market is an exciting, fast-moving space, defined by big mergers and acquisitions, market-moving announcements and emerging rivals with new business models that are attracting the eye of cash-rich venture capital firms.

“One thing is for sure. Consumer packaged goods (CPG) firms can’t ignore these companies in their quest to succeed in the new world of retail.”

Xian Wang, VP, Edge Retail Insight, said: “As more retailers cooperate with these intermediaries as a cost-effective way to scale up fulfilment capacity quickly, we see them becoming essential points of influence in a shopper’s purchase decision. Brands must start treating intermediaries as customers to win visibility on these platforms. On-demand delivery will be a key sub-channel in retail in the future and CPG brands will need to work out who to partner with and develop tailored product, pricing and promotional strategies to drive conversion on these platforms.

“The challenge for CPG brands is this sector is so dynamic and has such a short history and so data to quantify the delivery opportunity is difficult to come by. Our latest collection of research on this topic is designed to give manufacturers the confidence to make the right choices and investment decisions when it comes to delivery intermediaries.”

 

USA Delivery Intermediary Sales (USD mn)

 

Total Ecommerce vs. Delivery Intermediary USA Sales (USD mn)

 

Global Delivery Intermediary Sales (USD mn)

 

 

Notes to Editors

  • *GMV or gross merchandise value is a standard used to measure the size of a third-party (3P) marketplace. It is calculated by multiplying the number of products sold by the price at which each product was sold over a given time period.
  • Amazon sales consider only retail. These include online and offline (1P, 3P GMV, and store-based banners such as Whole Foods).
  • Walmart sales include all of their online and offline retail operations including Sam's Club, but exclude fuel

About the report

All figures come from Edge Retail Insight’s Sizing the Delivery Intermediary Opportunity Report, January 2021, available on subscription to the Edge by Ascential Retail Insight platform. The report was created with data from Edge by Ascential proprietary analytics tool Retail Market Monitor, which is able to analyse the entire retail ecosystem by sector, geography and channel and identify growth opportunities for retailers and manufacturers. 

In the methodology, marketplace sales exclude consumer-to-consumer (C2C) sales.

Our forecasts change week-by-week because of the fast-changing developments in the market, particularly at the moment as a result of the pandemic and evolving government messaging around lockdowns, but also because of the fast-paced changes and developments in digital innovation and ecommerce.

For the most up-to-date forecasts in the retail industry and to access the full report please email info@ascentialedge.com

Media enquiries

For further information, please contact:

Will Parrott/Emma Cheshire, Propeller PR

Edge@propellergroup.com

About Edge by Ascential

Edge by Ascential helps global and local brands to win in digital commerce in a new and complex era of omnichannel retail. Our unique combination of industry-leading data, analytics, market research and expert consulting solutions inform the ecommerce-driven go-to-market strategy, optimisation and performance measurement of the world’s largest consumer packaged goods brands. We support our clients to always make the right investment decisions, drive margin growth and achieve the necessary edge to grow. More than 400 global brands depend upon our weekly, daily and real-time data-driven insights.


A subsidiary of Ascential plc, the global specialist information company, Edge by Ascential operates in North America, Europe and Asia. For more information, visit www.ascentialedge.com

Facebook
LinkedIn
Facebook Share
LinkedIn Share

Information Request

Configurable, actionable insight at your fingertips